Observations on Republican Matt Van Epps defeating Democratic rival Aftyn Behn in Tuesday’s special election to represent Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District:
Flipping seats in special elections for House seats is hard.
The party challenging the seat sometimes makes a race of it. That often signals a weakness in the party in power or even the president as you approach the next election.
Democrats came close in multiple special elections in 2017, but didn’t win any. There have truly only been four major “flips” in House special elections in the past 18 years.
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Should Democrats have run a moderate? Behn was progressive. A centrist may have won a district like this based on Abigail Spanberger winning the Virginia gubernatorial race.
Van Epps’ win may encourage other Republicans to quit.
The House majority will be 220-214, but some Republicans are itching to leave. They may think there’s enough of a cushion, even though Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene departs in January.
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Moderate Republicans may look at this race and insist on the party addressing healthcare, seeing a competitive race as in a district with a plus-20 in favor of the GOP.
Moderate Republicans in California, New York and elsewhere should be worried in the midterms considering the Democratic strength in this race.
Dems flipped the House in 2018 after coming close in several special elections.
The Van Epps win underscores the point that gerrymandering/redistricting works.
Tennessee Republicans drew former Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper, and any other Democrat, out of a Nashville area district a few years ago.
The GOP trifurcated Nashville and the suburbs, diluting the Democratic vote among several GOP districts, which helped the GOP win Tuesday night.
