Egg prices are already steep – and might be getting worse.
The average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $4.15 during the month of December, said the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – an increase from $2.51 in December 2023.
There are two things driving the price increases: the bird flu outbreak and state laws about cage-free eggs.
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Patrick Penfield, a professor and supply chain expert at Syracuse University’s School of Management, told Nexstar Media that egg prices could rise by as much as 20% before the year is over.
This means that the average price of a dozen large eggs could be nearly $5 by the end of 2025, which would be the highest-ever recorded average price for a dozen eggs.
The previous high egg price was in January 2023, when the average price of a dozen large eggs was $4.82. By August 2023, however, the average price had dropped to $2.04.
Penfield predicted that egg prices could exceed that record as soon as February.
The current bird flu outbreak, which is technically known as “Highly pathogenic avian influenza” (HPAI), has resulted in a record number of deaths of egg-laying hens, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a recent report.
In the last quarter of 2024, more than 20 million egg-laying hens died.
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“Unlike in past years, in 2024, all major production systems experienced significant losses, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic types,” said the USDA.
Once bird flu is detected, a farm must cull all the birds in the flock. This has had a devastating impact on the egg industry, as it takes approximately five months for a chicken to mature.
“Once a hen is five months old it can lay about one egg per day,” said Penfield.
Presently, there are no vaccines or medical treatments against bird flu, he said. The only defense is “biosecurity practices” – keeping chickens safe from wild birds and away from humans, keeping enclosures covered, and “reducing large puddles and standing water.”
Penfield hopes that chickens will develop “some sort of natural immunity” against the outbreak, but warned Nexstar that this could take years.
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“We have not seen that yet and it will take many years for that to happen,” Penfield told Nexstar. “Also, if they do, we do not know if this immunity would protect hens if the bird flu virus mutated.”
Apart from bird flu, several states have laws requiring that all eggs sold to be “cage-free,” meaning the birds are not raised in cages. These are typically more expensive than conventional eggs even absent an outbreak of bird flu.
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While egg expert Lisa Steele told Fox News Digital that pasture-raised chickens produce the “gold standard” of eggs, these birds are at an increased risk of illness.
“Poultry get HPAI from infected waterfowl (ducks and geese) and gulls, which may frequent wetlands on farms. Thus, poultry raised outdoors or with outdoor access are at greater risk of HPAI,” said the University of Minnesota’s website on avian influenza.
“Infected poultry can spread disease to new flocks through contact with birds, people, manure and equipment. HPAI viruses can exist in bird waste for several months, especially under high-moisture and low-temperature conditions,” said the University of Minnesota.
